玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/104.91-11.15-13.7557.665.0916.58N/A-
2024/95.53-10.05-3.5252.757.2817.811.13-
2024/86.140.119.3647.228.718.121.11-
2024/76.145.1710.3141.088.617.581.14-
2024/65.844.058.8434.948.3117.111.11-
2024/55.61-1.11-7.0729.18.217.51.08-
2024/45.67-8.8820.8623.512.6216.591.14-
2024/36.2232.521.5617.8210.2317.821.01-
2024/24.7-31.97-9.9911.615.5316.991.06-
2024/16.928.0243.146.943.1418.490.98-
2023/125.39-12.93-3.5966.45-7.2517.281.05-
2023/116.198.7913.8261.06-7.5617.621.03-
2023/105.69-0.621.5554.86-9.4917.041.07-
2023/95.731.96-4.7749.17-10.6116.911.08-
2023/85.620.98-6.0343.44-11.3316.541.1-
2023/75.563.774.4537.82-12.0716.961.07-
2023/65.36-11.15-9.2532.26-14.416.091.13-
2023/56.0328.6-18.0726.9-15.3616.861.08-
2023/44.69-23.43-17.0120.86-14.5416.041.14-
2023/36.1317.44-14.3116.17-13.7916.171.16-
2023/25.228.182.2910.04-13.4815.641.2-
2023/14.82-13.77-25.854.82-25.8515.861.18-
2022/125.592.79-2.7171.650.8116.641.2-
2022/115.44-2.93-1.2666.061.1217.061.17-
2022/105.61-6.8110.1760.611.3417.61.13-
2022/96.020.62-19.2855.010.5217.321.28-
2022/85.9812.259.1448.993.6417.211.29-
2022/75.33-9.84-21.6543.012.9218.61.2-
2022/65.91-19.79-6.837.697.718.931.15-
2022/57.3730.2618.2831.7810.9120.171.08-
2022/45.65-20.94-7.4324.418.8617.911.21-
2022/37.1540.2112.2318.7614.9618.761.05-
2022/25.1-21.5715.5811.6116.7217.361.14-
2022/16.513.1317.636.517.6317.771.11-
2021/125.754.32-6.1271.0740.116.351.4-
2021/115.518.332.665.3246.4518.051.27-
2021/105.09-31.7318.1659.8147.8818.021.27-
2021/97.4536.0746.4754.7251.4219.731.04去年因新冠狀病毒疫情影響致營收減少,今年恢復正常
2021/85.48-19.4228.547.2752.2318.621.1去年因新冠狀病毒疫情影響致營收減少,今年恢復正常
2021/76.87.2471.3541.7956.019.371.06去年因新冠狀病毒疫情影響致營收減少,今年恢復正常
2021/66.341.897.4334.9953.3418.680.94去年因新冠狀病毒疫情影響致營收減少,今年恢復正常
2021/56.231.94175.1928.6546.1218.710.94去年因新冠狀病毒疫情影響致營收減少,今年恢復正常
2021/46.11-4.14153.8822.4229.2816.891.04去年因新冠狀病毒疫情影響致營收減少,今年恢復正常
2021/36.3744.420.816.329.2116.320.92-
2021/24.41-20.19-9.079.942.8816.070.93-
2021/15.53-9.7114.955.5314.9515.810.95-
2020/126.1247.3621.6250.73-22.5414.590.9-
2020/114.16-3.48-6.5644.6-26.2213.550.97-
2020/104.31-15.37-16.4840.45-27.7813.660.97-
2020/95.0919.372.0536.14-28.9313.321.08-
2020/84.267.44-24.0531.05-32.2911.441.26-
2020/73.9723.56-34.0926.79-33.449.441.53-
2020/63.2141.89-34.1622.82-33.337.882.25-
2020/52.26-5.95-55.0519.61-33.199.941.79因新冠肺炎疫情影響,歐美車廠停工,客戶延遲提貨。
2020/42.41-54.39-59.1217.35-28.6712.541.42因新冠狀病毒疫情影響,歐美車廠停工,客戶延遲提貨。
2020/35.288.68-12.3914.94-18.9414.940.95-
2020/24.850.91.199.66-22.1214.70.97-
2020/14.81-4.48-36.824.81-36.8214.291.0-
2019/125.0413.2-17.7565.49-17.950.0N/A-
2019/114.45-13.73-25.6760.45-17.970.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/16.92023/14.822022/16.52021/15.532020/14.81
2024/24.72023/25.222022/25.12021/24.412020/24.85
2024/36.222023/36.132022/37.152021/36.372020/35.28
2024/45.672023/44.692022/45.652021/46.112020/42.41
2024/55.612023/56.032022/57.372021/56.232020/52.26
2024/65.842023/65.362022/65.912021/66.342020/63.21
2024/76.142023/75.562022/75.332021/76.82020/73.97
2024/86.142023/85.622022/85.982021/85.482020/84.26
2024/95.532023/95.732022/96.022021/97.452020/95.09
2024/104.912023/105.692022/105.612021/105.092020/104.31
N/AN/A2023/116.192022/115.442021/115.512020/114.16
N/AN/A2023/125.392022/125.592021/125.752020/126.12
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 1.93%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.57-18.571.79
24Q2 (19)0.79.3832.08
24Q1 (18)0.6425.49-24.71
23Q4 (17)0.51-8.93-26.09
23Q3 (16)0.565.66-15.15
23Q2 (15)0.53-37.65-36.9
23Q1 (14)0.8523.1914.86
22Q4 (13)0.694.557.81
22Q3 (12)0.66-21.4324.53
22Q2 (11)0.8413.5171.43
22Q1 (10)0.7415.62155.17
21Q4 (9)0.6420.75100.0
21Q3 (8)0.538.1676.67
21Q2 (7)0.4968.9758.06
21Q1 (6)0.29-9.380.0
20Q4 (5)0.326.6733.33
20Q3 (4)0.3-3.230.0
20Q2 (3)0.316.90.0
20Q1 (2)0.2920.830.0
19Q4 (1)0.240.00.0

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