玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.1-43.32-7.091.259.810.38N/A-
2024/90.18105.324.941.1411.660.360.37-
2024/80.097.535.870.9613.040.360.36-
2024/70.08-55.75-31.660.8713.830.380.34-
2024/60.1974.3297.950.7922.450.410.37主係專案完成驗收所致
2024/50.11-5.53-29.140.69.370.330.46-
2024/40.118.75-0.950.4924.170.330.46-
2024/30.1-1.39-16.130.3834.490.380.34-
2024/20.11-35.981.250.2775.250.340.38主要專案完成驗收所致
2024/10.17142.571.610.1771.610.390.34主係客製化軟體完成驗收所致
2023/120.07-54.63-51.951.35-19.690.330.36主係客製化軟體驗收時程延宕所致
2023/110.1534.7347.31.29-16.720.440.27-
2023/100.11-35.981.121.02-23.130.370.32-
2023/90.17107.1517.051.02-23.130.380.37-
2023/80.08-30.59-21.850.85-28.210.30.47-
2023/70.1228.176.340.76-28.840.370.38-
2023/60.09-37.6-38.190.64-33.040.360.47-
2023/50.1532.041.990.55-32.060.390.43-
2023/40.12-7.91-35.410.4-39.780.30.57-
2023/30.13113.12-35.10.28-41.410.280.68-
2023/20.06-39.3-41.740.16-45.670.290.66-
2023/10.1-25.94-47.810.1-47.810.330.58-
2022/120.1327.5-56.531.67-8.280.350.54本期營收較去年同期衰退,主係因去年同期有大型專案驗收,使得去年同期營收較高。
2022/110.1-13.13-15.951.541.20.360.52-
2022/100.12-17.11-21.71.442.690.370.52-
2022/90.1431.647.891.325.620.370.41-
2022/80.11-7.5-19.151.185.350.380.4-
2022/70.12-22.71-31.781.078.670.420.36-
2022/60.151.354.390.9617.140.480.25-
2022/50.15-14.7937.830.8119.890.520.23-
2022/40.17-10.7322.520.6616.450.470.25-
2022/30.294.62.810.4814.390.480.37-
2022/20.1-45.62-1.090.2923.950.610.3-
2022/10.19-42.6943.740.1943.740.630.29-
2021/120.32165.33-4.291.85-15.480.590.25-
2021/110.12-18.66-2.81.53-17.530.40.37-
2021/100.1512.97-8.371.4-18.60.420.36-
2021/90.13-0.77-30.811.25-19.670.440.39-
2021/80.13-21.69-11.571.12-18.110.450.38-
2021/70.1717.42-54.810.99-18.920.420.4去年7月營收較今年同期高,主要為去年7月份有大型專案驗收所致。
2021/60.1534.34-16.330.82-2.820.390.38-
2021/50.11-22.28-13.790.670.690.440.34-
2021/40.14-28.36-17.320.564.040.440.34-
2021/30.1990.7750.160.4213.670.420.42本月營收較去年同期高,主要為今年3月陸續有專案驗收所致。
2021/20.1-20.9821.880.23-5.630.570.32-
2021/10.13-61.64-19.920.13-19.920.590.3-
2020/120.34164.88-11.892.19-9.950.630.29-
2020/110.13-24.09-59.691.85-9.590.480.37去年11月營收較今年同期高,主要為去年11月份子公司有專案驗收所致。
2020/100.17-11.0712.291.72-0.50.510.36-
2020/90.1924.38-16.331.56-1.70.720.32-
2020/80.15-59.9913.211.370.710.70.33-
2020/70.38117.71143.831.22-0.640.680.34本月營收較去年同期高,主要為7月份有大型專案驗收所致。
2020/60.1738.28-23.060.84-21.520.421.05-
2020/50.132.86-16.260.67-21.110.421.04-
2020/40.12-30.59-0.570.54-22.160.381.15-
2020/30.18110.34-20.060.42-26.770.420.98-
2020/20.08-48.08-42.490.24-30.940.660.62-
2020/10.16-61.47-22.90.16-22.90.890.46-
2019/120.4232.7271.762.474.350.0N/A主要為大型專案在本月完成驗收。
2019/110.31111.48100.592.05-3.370.0N/A主要為大型專案在本月完成驗收。
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.172023/10.12022/10.192021/10.132020/10.16
2024/20.112023/20.062022/20.12021/20.12020/20.08
2024/30.12023/30.132022/30.22021/30.192020/30.18
2024/40.112023/40.122022/40.172021/40.142020/40.12
2024/50.112023/50.152022/50.152021/50.112020/50.13
2024/60.192023/60.092022/60.152021/60.152020/60.17
2024/70.082023/70.122022/70.122021/70.172020/70.38
2024/80.092023/80.082022/80.112021/80.132020/80.15
2024/90.182023/90.172022/90.142021/90.132020/90.19
2024/100.12023/100.112022/100.122021/100.152020/100.17
N/AN/A2023/110.152022/110.12021/110.122020/110.13
N/AN/A2023/120.072022/120.132021/120.322020/120.34
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 1.8%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.16100.0100.0
24Q2 (19)0.08-27.270.0
24Q1 (18)0.11-8.3310.0
23Q4 (17)0.1250.033.33
23Q3 (16)0.080.014.29
23Q2 (15)0.08-20.014.29
23Q1 (14)0.111.1111.11
22Q4 (13)0.0928.570.0
22Q3 (12)0.070.0-30.0
22Q2 (11)0.07-22.220
22Q1 (10)0.090.00
21Q4 (9)0.09-10.00
21Q3 (8)0.100

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