玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/111.28-1.5252.1412.1111.554.16N/A主係客戶113年Q3及Q4進行產品促銷活動專案使營收較同期成長
2024/101.3-17.2574.5710.838.134.39N/A主係客戶進行產品促銷活動專案使營收較同期成長
2024/91.573.6130.219.532.793.880.44-
2024/81.5291.8970.07.95-1.313.570.48主係中國市場回温,客戶進行產品推廣促銷,致營收較同期單月成長
2024/70.79-37.23-24.06.43-10.23.090.56-
2024/61.2621.5-26.975.64-7.863.20.44-
2024/51.0415.515.144.38-0.362.880.48-
2024/40.9-5.11-3.353.35-1.952.480.56-
2024/30.9549.78-1.932.45-1.432.450.62-
2024/20.63-27.4-14.291.5-1.112.610.58-
2024/10.87-21.7111.310.8711.312.820.54-
2023/121.1131.963.1311.97-30.532.70.49-
2023/110.8412.99-30.0310.86-32.782.80.48-
2023/100.75-38.28-43.6710.01-33.02.850.47-
2023/91.2135.27-42.179.27-31.973.140.51-
2023/80.89-14.21-58.688.06-30.123.660.44銷售多功能事務機主要市場為中國,本月較去年同期衰退原因有疫後市場需求減弱,客戶因晶圓缺貨產生的超額訂單庫存,有待去化
2023/71.04-39.68-17.137.17-23.533.750.43-
2023/61.7374.9520.676.13-24.523.640.44-
2023/50.996.18-42.134.4-34.192.880.55-
2023/40.93-3.72-39.723.41-31.472.630.6-
2023/30.9630.9-17.972.48-27.782.481.0-
2023/20.74-5.71-24.791.52-32.882.60.96-
2023/10.78-27.46-39.060.78-39.063.060.81-
2022/121.08-10.48-38.0817.23-2.743.610.8-
2022/111.2-9.02-18.9816.151.14.620.63-
2022/101.32-36.6419.0914.953.165.570.52-
2022/92.09-3.3358.3413.621.845.510.5與去年同期比較,客戶機種本月出貨數量較同期成長20%以上,並以高單價機種做為其推廣主力機種,故營收較去年同期成長
2022/82.1672.0352.6211.53-4.334.850.57與去年同期比較,客戶機種本月出貨數量較同期成長25%以上,並以高單價機種做為其推廣主力機種,故營收較去年同期成長
2022/71.26-12.16-3.659.37-11.914.390.63-
2022/61.43-16.1-7.158.12-13.074.680.56-
2022/51.710.631.66.69-14.234.420.59-
2022/41.5431.03-21.864.98-23.373.70.71-
2022/31.1820.02-49.543.44-24.033.440.77-
2022/20.98-23.618.572.263.044.00.66-
2022/11.28-26.29-6.321.28-6.324.510.59-
2021/121.7417.143.6817.7138.654.340.58-
2021/111.4933.7227.1615.9743.943.920.64-
2021/101.11-15.7633.1614.4945.913.850.65-
2021/91.32-6.82-12.9113.3847.094.040.55-
2021/81.428.592.0812.0659.084.260.52多功能事務機訂單較去年同期增加
2021/71.3-15.36-0.5710.6471.854.140.54多功能事務機訂單較去年同期上升
2021/61.5418.9230.629.3491.314.810.38多功能事務機訂單量較去年同期上升。
2021/51.3-34.3365.767.8110.655.60.33多功能事務機訂單較去年同期上升。
2021/41.97-15.38164.526.5122.675.130.36多功能事務機訂單量較去年同期上升。
2021/32.33182.05144.824.53108.314.530.34多功能事務機訂單量較去年同期上升。
2021/20.83-39.64111.822.279.843.880.39多功能事務機訂單量較去年同期上升。
2021/11.37-18.4264.821.3764.824.220.361. 2020年1月適逢農曆春節,故營收基期較低. 2. 多功能事務機訂單量較去年同期上升.
2020/121.6843.6631.3512.78-27.83.680.4-
2020/111.1740.03-18.1711.1-32.413.520.42-
2020/100.83-44.91-53.539.93-33.773.740.4新舊產品市場替代空窗期所影響。
2020/91.519.21-14.969.09-31.074.210.3-
2020/81.395.77-13.897.58-33.593.880.33-
2020/71.3111.19-11.86.19-36.833.270.39-
2020/61.1850.91-31.124.88-41.32.710.54-
2020/50.784.78-41.343.7-43.942.480.59-
2020/40.75-21.68-44.452.92-44.62.090.7-
2020/30.95144.03-26.932.17-44.652.170.68-
2020/20.39-53.04-64.771.22-53.452.50.59因客戶在市場面臨強烈的價格及功能競爭,通路庫存偏高待去化、本月出貨量減少,同時部分專案已於去年中止合作所致
2020/10.83-34.98-45.180.83-45.180.0N/A-
2019/121.28-10.5-48.3517.7-18.150.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.872023/10.782022/11.282021/11.372020/10.83
2024/20.632023/20.742022/20.982021/20.832020/20.39
2024/30.952023/30.962022/31.182021/32.332020/30.95
2024/40.92023/40.932022/41.542021/41.972020/40.75
2024/51.042023/50.992022/51.72021/51.32020/50.78
2024/61.262023/61.732022/61.432021/61.542020/61.18
2024/70.792023/71.042022/71.262021/71.32020/71.31
2024/81.522023/80.892022/82.162021/81.422020/81.39
2024/91.572023/91.212022/92.092021/91.322020/91.51
2024/101.32023/100.752022/101.322021/101.112020/100.83
2024/111.282023/110.842022/111.22021/111.492020/111.17
N/AN/A2023/121.112022/121.082021/121.742020/121.68
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 1.78%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.25.26-16.67
24Q2 (19)0.195.56-29.63
24Q1 (18)0.18-18.18-51.35
23Q4 (17)0.22-8.33-4.35
23Q3 (16)0.24-11.11-4.0
23Q2 (15)0.27-27.033.85
23Q1 (14)0.3760.8727.59
22Q4 (13)0.23-8.0-14.81
22Q3 (12)0.25-3.85-43.18
22Q2 (11)0.26-10.34-33.33
22Q1 (10)0.297.41-23.68
21Q4 (9)0.27-38.64-15.62
21Q3 (8)0.4412.827.32
21Q2 (7)0.392.635.41
21Q1 (6)0.3818.75-34.48
20Q4 (5)0.32-21.95-54.29
20Q3 (4)0.4110.810.0
20Q2 (3)0.37-36.210.0
20Q1 (2)0.58-17.140.0
19Q4 (1)0.70.00.0

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