玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/101.2861.533.9110.2713.523.36N/A-
2024/90.79-38.663.598.9911.113.040.68-
2024/81.2934.352.798.211.93.270.64-
2024/70.96-6.070.196.9113.782.710.77-
2024/61.0241.12-9.095.9516.332.460.91-
2024/50.721.8-7.414.9323.492.840.79-
2024/40.71-49.355.64.231.033.050.74活動檔期帶動營收增加
2024/31.450.9210.183.4926.953.490.55-
2024/20.93-19.7540.362.0941.43.080.63-
2024/11.1616.8242.251.1642.253.480.55-
2023/120.99-25.5735.7111.3722.693.280.58-
2023/111.3339.665.3410.3821.583.050.62-
2023/100.9524.9320.829.0524.42.970.64-
2023/90.76-39.1337.078.0924.842.980.72-
2023/81.2630.9565.387.3323.693.340.64因實體通路備貨
2023/70.96-14.782.636.0717.562.870.74-
2023/61.1243.7377.845.1220.862.360.72因新品備貨業績成長。
2023/50.7871.126.083.9910.852.510.68-
2023/40.46-64.0912.893.217.682.390.71-
2023/31.2792.2671.782.756.862.750.47因醫美節業績成長。
2023/20.66-18.660.481.48-19.42.210.58-
2023/10.8111.45-30.580.81-30.582.810.46-
2022/120.73-42.221.429.27-16.22.790.41-
2022/111.2760.1812.538.54-17.432.610.44-
2022/100.7941.73-32.647.27-21.082.110.55-
2022/90.56-26.56-52.56.48-19.42.250.63今年受大陸封城影響,營收較低。
2022/80.76-18.73-37.495.92-13.742.330.61-
2022/70.9347.660.735.17-8.642.190.64-
2022/60.631.9-14.454.23-10.481.660.7-
2022/50.6253.19-18.463.6-9.751.770.66-
2022/40.41-45.37-52.472.98-7.71.810.64主要係受大陸及台灣疫情影響所致。
2022/30.7412.4610.642.578.362.570.38-
2022/20.66-43.81-14.711.837.462.550.39-
2022/11.1762.8425.851.1725.853.020.33-
2021/120.72-35.915.9311.0644.643.020.38-
2021/111.12-4.1336.4310.3447.183.470.33-
2021/101.17-0.0680.479.2248.613.560.32本月線上通路銷售持續上升及大陸因應促銷活動提前備貨。
2021/91.17-3.3554.668.0444.883.310.43本月線上通路銷售持續上升及大陸因應促銷活動提前備貨。
2021/81.2130.9862.16.8743.332.880.5疫情趨緩實體通路銷售回升及大陸因應促銷活動提前備貨。
2021/70.9325.415.465.6639.862.430.59-
2021/60.74-2.8712.424.7345.92.350.56-
2021/50.76-10.7189.73.9954.422.280.57去年同期受疫情影響,營收基期較低。
2021/40.8527.19145.13.2347.932.30.57去年同期受疫情影響,營收基期較低。
2021/30.67-13.31-15.712.3829.512.380.54-
2021/20.77-17.08125.971.7164.112.330.55去年同期受疫情影響,營收基期較低。
2021/10.9350.0133.750.9333.752.380.54-
2020/120.62-24.563.567.65-24.62.10.49-
2020/110.8226.81-2.87.02-26.382.230.46-
2020/100.65-14.35-28.886.2-28.672.160.48-
2020/90.761.2920.045.55-28.652.310.57-
2020/80.75-6.69-28.734.79-32.962.210.59-
2020/70.822.09-17.334.04-33.681.860.7-
2020/60.6663.89-15.873.24-36.781.410.98-
2020/50.415.35-53.352.58-40.541.540.89因大陸轉投資公司不再併入合併報表及新冠肺炎疫情影響銷售所致。
2020/40.35-56.25-61.432.18-37.381.480.93因大陸轉投資公司不再併入合併報表及新冠肺炎疫情影響銷售所致。
2020/30.8132.39-13.531.83-28.991.830.7-
2020/20.34-50.92-49.11.04-37.531.640.79-
2020/10.716.15-29.690.7-29.692.140.6-
2019/120.6-29.21-6.9610.145.310.0N/A-
2019/110.85-7.21-36.639.546.190.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/11.162023/10.812022/11.172021/10.932020/10.7
2024/20.932023/20.662022/20.662021/20.772020/20.34
2024/31.42023/31.272022/30.742021/30.672020/30.8
2024/40.712023/40.462022/40.412021/40.852020/40.35
2024/50.722023/50.782022/50.622021/50.762020/50.4
2024/61.022023/61.122022/60.632021/60.742020/60.66
2024/70.962023/70.962022/70.932021/70.932020/70.8
2024/81.292023/81.262022/80.762021/81.212020/80.75
2024/90.792023/90.762022/90.562021/91.172020/90.76
2024/101.282023/100.952022/100.792021/101.172020/100.65
N/AN/A2023/111.332022/111.272021/111.122020/110.82
N/AN/A2023/120.992022/120.732021/120.722020/120.62
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 3.11%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.1416.677.69
24Q2 (19)0.1220.09.09
24Q1 (18)0.125.00.0
23Q4 (17)0.08-38.460.0
23Q3 (16)0.1318.18-23.53
23Q2 (15)0.1110.0-31.25
23Q1 (14)0.125.0-33.33
22Q4 (13)0.08-52.94-42.86
22Q3 (12)0.176.25-15.0
22Q2 (11)0.166.67-5.88
22Q1 (10)0.157.147.14
21Q4 (9)0.14-30.016.67
21Q3 (8)0.217.6566.67
21Q2 (7)0.1721.4370.0
21Q1 (6)0.1416.6755.56
20Q4 (5)0.120.033.33
20Q3 (4)0.1220.00.0
20Q2 (3)0.111.110.0
20Q1 (2)0.090.00.0
19Q4 (1)0.090.00.0

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