玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/110.44-9.914.214.45-1.371.35N/A-
2024/100.4914.0925.14.01-2.831.43N/A-
2024/90.43-16.5925.363.52-5.741.360.94-
2024/80.5122.6520.543.09-8.861.231.04-
2024/70.4238.974.482.58-13.071.01.27-
2024/60.35.06-26.082.16-15.811.061.31-
2024/50.29-39.63-22.671.86-13.881.041.34-
2024/40.4771.132.261.58-12.061.141.22-
2024/30.28-28.36-36.911.1-17.051.11.15-
2024/20.39-12.08-21.850.83-7.271.290.98-
2024/10.44-5.3210.90.4410.91.290.99-
2023/120.4620.749.44.98-22.211.240.93-
2023/110.38-1.31-21.824.51-24.461.121.03-
2023/100.3914.33-38.614.13-24.71.160.99-
2023/90.34-19.79-34.533.74-22.871.171.2-
2023/80.436.3-29.613.4-21.471.231.14-
2023/70.4-1.67-32.762.97-20.151.181.19-
2023/60.419.9-28.722.57-17.751.241.15-
2023/50.37-20.16-17.722.16-15.31.271.12-
2023/40.465.58-0.141.79-14.781.41.02-
2023/30.44-11.27-19.021.33-18.921.331.39-
2023/20.4924.7742.840.89-18.871.321.41-
2023/10.4-6.6-47.290.4-47.291.311.41-
2022/120.42-13.72-29.496.4-1.671.551.47-
2022/110.49-22.5-30.395.971.161.651.38-
2022/100.6421.92-28.645.485.461.761.3-
2022/90.52-13.7643.834.8512.511.721.56-
2022/80.61.557.254.329.631.771.51-
2022/70.594.22-0.413.7210.031.621.66-
2022/60.5726.86-2.483.1312.271.481.84-
2022/50.45-3.09-15.92.5616.21.461.87-
2022/40.46-14.38-2.542.1126.521.352.02-
2022/30.5456.5213.981.6438.181.641.71-
2022/20.35-53.951.821.154.361.71.65代理商需求增加
2022/10.7524.92102.450.75102.452.061.36代理商需求增加
2021/120.6-14.81-15.766.5115.692.21.05-
2021/110.71-20.5646.435.920.271.961.18-
2021/100.89145.7979.375.217.421.821.27客戶內需需求市場增加
2021/90.36-35.7-37.414.319.61.521.44-
2021/80.56-5.725.393.9417.711.751.26-
2021/70.62.0531.883.3816.531.721.28-
2021/60.599.46.722.7813.691.61.23-
2021/50.5312.352.382.215.71.491.32因去年全球疫情嚴峻,導致營收較低
2021/40.480.1341.921.667.391.291.52-
2021/30.4839.8226.931.19-2.151.191.57-
2021/20.34-8.45-22.520.71-15.151.431.3-
2021/10.37-48.02-7.050.37-7.051.571.19-
2020/120.7248.0828.995.62-10.431.690.96-
2020/110.48-2.694.454.91-14.251.561.05-
2020/100.5-14.24-31.834.43-15.891.521.07-
2020/90.5828.83-14.973.93-13.331.481.28-
2020/80.45-0.82-1.313.35-13.041.451.3-
2020/70.45-17.41-10.182.9-14.611.351.4-
2020/60.5556.2113.032.45-15.391.241.45-
2020/50.354.59-31.381.9-21.111.061.69-
2020/40.34-10.44-22.271.55-18.341.151.56-
2020/30.37-14.65-38.591.21-17.181.211.35-
2020/20.449.8221.550.84-1.911.391.18-
2020/10.4-27.86-19.070.4-19.070.0N/A-
2019/120.5519.913.126.28-5.960.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.442023/10.42022/10.752021/10.372020/10.4
2024/20.392023/20.492022/20.352021/20.342020/20.44
2024/30.282023/30.442022/30.542021/30.482020/30.37
2024/40.472023/40.462022/40.462021/40.482020/40.34
2024/50.292023/50.372022/50.452021/50.532020/50.35
2024/60.32023/60.412022/60.572021/60.592020/60.55
2024/70.422023/70.42022/70.592021/70.62020/70.45
2024/80.512023/80.432022/80.62021/80.562020/80.45
2024/90.432023/90.342022/90.522021/90.362020/90.58
2024/100.492023/100.392022/100.642021/100.892020/100.5
2024/110.442023/110.382022/110.492021/110.712020/110.48
N/AN/A2023/120.462022/120.422021/120.62020/120.72
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 2.4%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.111.110.0
24Q2 (19)0.0950.080.0
24Q1 (18)0.0650.050.0
23Q4 (17)0.04-60.0-42.86
23Q3 (16)0.1100.011.11
23Q2 (15)0.0525.0-50.0
23Q1 (14)0.04-42.86-50.0
22Q4 (13)0.07-22.22-22.22
22Q3 (12)0.09-10.0-10.0
22Q2 (11)0.125.042.86
22Q1 (10)0.08-11.11-11.11
21Q4 (9)0.09-10.050.0
21Q3 (8)0.142.86150.0
21Q2 (7)0.07-22.220
21Q1 (6)0.0950.00
20Q4 (5)0.0650.00
20Q3 (4)0.0400.0

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