玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.8711.36-1.438.511.092.48N/A-
2024/90.78-5.98-0.857.6312.732.380.0-
2024/80.838.27-0.396.8514.512.440.0-
2024/70.77-9.11-4.96.0216.932.420.0-
2024/60.843.97.685.2520.982.50.0-
2024/50.81-3.963.294.4123.92.710.0-
2024/40.84-19.723.833.629.732.70.0-
2024/31.0531.9440.332.7640.482.760.0-
2024/20.8-11.8527.131.740.582.910.0-
2024/10.9-25.0455.030.955.033.040.0因疫情解封致營收成長
2023/121.2130.3766.179.7879.093.010.0因疫情解封致營收成長
2023/110.935.0691.138.5881.072.590.0因疫情解封致營收成長
2023/100.8812.0189.697.6579.922.50.0因疫情解封致營收成長
2023/90.79-5.5369.756.7778.722.430.0因疫情趨緩致營收成長
2023/80.833.3671.955.9879.982.420.0因疫情趨緩致營收成長
2023/70.812.9186.265.1581.352.370.0因疫情趨緩致營收成長
2023/60.78-0.32139.224.3480.462.380.0因疫情趨緩致營收成長
2023/50.79-3.46109.43.5671.212.350.0因疫情解封致營收成長
2023/40.818.4992.362.7762.812.190.0因疫情解封致營收成長
2023/30.7519.5490.171.9653.051.960.0因疫情解封致營收成長
2023/20.637.4947.621.2136.551.940.0-
2023/10.58-19.6526.350.5826.351.790.0-
2022/120.7349.9519.25.4639.471.680.0-
2022/110.484.2730.544.7443.211.410.0-
2022/100.460.2331.764.2544.811.410.0-
2022/90.46-4.3145.073.7946.591.380.0-
2022/80.4811.9754.543.3246.81.240.0因疫情趨緩致營收成長
2022/70.4332.17105.962.8445.561.140.0因疫情趨緩致營收成長
2022/60.33-12.75160.662.4138.271.130.0因疫情趨緩致營收成長
2022/50.38-11.3250.442.0828.761.190.0因疫情趨緩致營收成長
2022/40.427.2615.621.724.81.240.0-
2022/30.39-7.227.721.2828.151.280.0-
2022/20.42-7.9930.480.8928.351.50.0-
2022/10.46-24.226.450.4626.451.440.0-
2021/120.6164.2141.893.92-11.231.330.0-
2021/110.375.254.453.31-16.961.040.0-
2021/100.3510.36-6.932.94-19.060.990.0-
2021/90.321.93-10.052.58-20.470.840.0-
2021/80.3149.22-17.322.26-21.750.650.0-
2021/70.2167.28-36.851.95-22.420.580.0-
2021/60.13-49.64-42.01.74-20.220.740.0-
2021/50.25-31.8460.451.61-17.820.920.0去年本月受疫情影響致營收驟降
2021/40.3718.48215.251.37-24.541.00.0去年本月受疫情影響致營收驟降
2021/30.31-5.277.291.0-40.971.00.0受疫情影響致本期營收下降
2021/20.33-10.83-34.80.69-54.531.120.0受疫情影響致本期營收下降
2021/10.37-14.94-64.190.37-64.191.150.0受疫情影響致本期營收下降
2020/120.4320.88-66.894.41-63.791.160.0受疫情影響致本期營收下降
2020/110.36-6.21-65.253.98-63.431.090.0受疫情影響致本期營收下降
2020/100.386.66-62.253.63-63.241.110.0受疫情影響致本期營收下降
2020/90.36-6.3-61.933.25-63.351.070.0受疫情影響致本期營收下降
2020/80.3813.96-64.842.89-63.510.930.0受疫情影響致本期營收下降
2020/70.3353.64-65.312.51-63.310.70.0受疫情影響致本期營收下降
2020/60.2239.31-76.642.18-62.980.490.0受疫情影響致本期營收下降
2020/50.1633.9-84.561.97-60.430.450.0受疫情影響致本期營收下降
2020/40.12-33.36-88.071.81-54.30.790.0受疫情影響致本期營收下降
2020/30.17-65.13-84.221.69-43.31.690.0受疫情影響致本期營收下降
2020/20.5-51.02-45.261.52-19.32.820.0-
2020/11.02-21.375.111.025.113.340.0-
2019/121.326.887.1512.194.910.0N/A-
2019/111.021.881.6610.894.650.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.92023/10.582022/10.462021/10.372020/11.02
2024/20.82023/20.632022/20.422021/20.332020/20.5
2024/31.052023/30.752022/30.392021/30.312020/30.17
2024/40.842023/40.812022/40.422021/40.372020/40.12
2024/50.812023/50.792022/50.382021/50.252020/50.16
2024/60.842023/60.782022/60.332021/60.132020/60.22
2024/70.772023/70.812022/70.432021/70.212020/70.33
2024/80.832023/80.832022/80.482021/80.312020/80.38
2024/90.782023/90.792022/90.462021/90.322020/90.36
2024/100.872023/100.882022/100.462021/100.352020/100.38
N/AN/A2023/110.932022/110.482021/110.372020/110.36
N/AN/A2023/121.212022/120.732021/120.612020/120.43
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 12.76%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.2812.00.0
24Q2 (19)0.258.7-3.85
24Q1 (18)0.23-23.33-4.17
23Q4 (17)0.37.1420.0
23Q3 (16)0.287.6916.67
23Q2 (15)0.268.3352.94
23Q1 (14)0.24-4.014.29
22Q4 (13)0.254.17-10.71
22Q3 (12)0.2441.1826.32
22Q2 (11)0.17-19.0530.77
22Q1 (10)0.21-25.061.54
21Q4 (9)0.2847.37115.38
21Q3 (8)0.1946.15137.5
21Q2 (7)0.130.0225.0
21Q1 (6)0.130.0550.0
20Q4 (5)0.1362.518.18
20Q3 (4)0.08100.00.0
20Q2 (3)0.04100.00.0
20Q1 (2)0.02-81.820.0
19Q4 (1)0.110.00.0

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