玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/110.00.44-99.2122.82471.10.01N/A本月營收較去年減少係去年因個案交屋認列收入,本年累計營收較去年增加,主要係本年度交屋量體較大
2024/100.0-0.44-52.4322.82515.230.03N/A累計營收較去年增加,主要係本年度交屋量體較大
2024/90.0-92.00.4422.82515.950.033321.03累計營收較去年增加,主要係本年度交屋量體較大
2024/80.031150.01150.022.82516.270.033323.05累計營收較去年增加,主要係本年度交屋量體較大
2024/70.00.89-97.3422.79515.880.0116099.11累計營收較去年增加,主要係本年度交屋量體較大
2024/60.0-0.88-0.8822.79530.30.0115677.04累計營收較去年增加,主要係本年度交屋量體較大
2024/50.00.440.4422.78530.630.11954.8累計營收較去年增加,主要係本年度交屋量體較大
2024/40.0-97.88-68.7922.78530.960.52204.51累計營收較去年增加,主要係本年度交屋量體較大
2024/30.11-73.994625.3322.78532.1622.784.46營收較去年增加,主要係本年度交屋量體較大
2024/20.41-98.16314.222.67529.6175.261.35營收較去年增加,主要係本年度交屋量體較大
2024/122.26-57.66535.6822.26535.6875.141.35營收較去年增加,主要係本年度交屋量體較大
2023/1252.5918223.21356.2956.59359.9252.882.21營收較去年增加,主要係本年度交屋量體較大
2023/110.295967.8612599.54.0-54.020.29397.53本月營收增加係因個案交屋認列收入,累計營收較去年減少,主要係去年交屋量體較大
2023/100.0110.22110.223.71-57.310.0112648.27累計營收較去年減少,主要係去年交屋量體較大
2023/90.0-0.440.03.7-57.350.091689.9累計營收較去年減少,主要係去年交屋量體較大
2023/80.0-97.340.03.7-57.370.091689.71累計營收較去年減少,主要係去年交屋量體較大
2023/70.093661.53678.223.7-57.380.091689.9累計營收較去年減少,主要係去年交屋量體較大
2023/60.00.44-56.73.61-58.350.0112405.29累計營收較去年減少,主要係去年交屋量體較大
2023/50.0-68.79-5.063.61-58.350.0112415.88累計營收較去年減少,主要係去年交屋量體較大
2023/40.01220.44204.213.61-58.370.111344.09累計營收較去年減少,主要係去年交屋量體較大
2023/30.0-97.72-98.283.6-58.443.638.81營收較去年減少,主要係去年交屋量體較大
2023/20.1-97.18127.183.6-57.837.2119.39累計營收較去年減少,主要係去年交屋量體較大
2023/13.5-3.01-58.773.5-58.777.1219.65營收較去年減少,主要係去年交屋量體較大
2022/123.61159687.0-62.9712.3-62.533.6238.36營收較去年減少,主要係去年交屋量體較大
2022/110.00.44-4.648.69-62.350.0120519.23去年同期因建案完工認列收入
2022/100.00.0-53.68.69-62.350.0120519.23去年同期因建案完工認列收入
2022/90.0-0.44-97.648.69-62.360.0119829.88去年同期因建案完工認列收入
2022/80.00.44-99.98.69-62.210.0113776.98去年同期因建案完工認列收入
2022/70.0-56.89-99.988.68-58.020.0113622.97去年同期因建案完工認列收入
2022/60.01120.25120.258.6860.720.0112894.58累計營收較去年增加,主要係今年交屋量體較大
2022/50.00.0-0.428.6860.70.14942.95累計營收較去年增加,主要係今年交屋建案量體較大
2022/40.0-98.190.08.6760.720.18724.45累計營收較去年增加,主要係今年交屋量體較大
2022/30.13202.555446.838.6760.758.6713.64累計營收較去年增加,主要係今年交屋量體較大
2022/20.04-99.48-56.518.5458.3818.296.47累計營收較去年增加,主要係今年交屋量體較大
2022/18.5-12.8960.558.560.5518.256.48本月營收較去年同月增加,主要係本月交屋量體較大
2021/129.75411428.0-59.6532.84-0.719.7612.25本月營收較去年同月減少,主要係去年同月交屋量體較大
2021/110.0-51.13-96.2123.09159.370.11164.43累計營收較去年增加,主要係今年交屋量體較大
2021/100.0-94.91-98.2223.09161.182.449.78累計營收較去年增加,主要係今年交屋量體較大
2021/90.1-95.85-98.6223.08169.4617.684.19累計營收較去年增加,主要係今年交屋量體較大
2021/82.3-84.9496993.722.991333.5217.594.21建案完工認列收入
2021/715.28644788.0644788.020.681191.9215.294.84建案完工認列收入
2021/60.0-0.420.05.4237.830.0111529.49累計營收較去年增加,主要係今年交屋建案量體較大
2021/50.00.42-50.825.4238.180.0111529.49累計營收較去年增加,主要係今年交屋建案量體較大
2021/40.00.00.05.4239.060.1784.27累計營收較去年增加,主要係今年交屋建案量體較大
2021/30.0-97.62-71.345.39239.425.3914.17累計營收較去年增加,主要係今年交屋建案量體較大
2021/20.1-98.114116.455.39241.0429.572.58累計營收較去年增加,主要係今年完工建案量體較大
2021/15.29-78.11235.25.29235.229.532.59建案完工認列收入
2020/1224.1838559.03210.2833.08380.424.513.13累計營收較去年增加,主要係今年完工建案量體較大
2020/110.06-77.13-98.648.944.617.310.51累計營收較去年增加,主要係今年完工建案量體較大
2020/100.27-96.0711440.18.84472.097.2410.59建案完工認列收入
2020/96.96293657.0293657.08.57455.246.9712.68建案完工認列收入
2020/80.00.00.01.64.10.0112428.97-
2020/70.00.00.01.64.10.019224.43-
2020/60.0-51.030.01.64.110.019004.18-
2020/50.0104.21-93.831.64.120.025572.35本月營收較去年同期減少,主要係本月並無建案完工交屋
2020/40.0-71.34-99.831.599.40.016630.28本月營收較去年同期減少,主要係本月並無建案完工交屋
2020/30.01248.94248.941.5922219.41.5938.37本年營收較去年增加,係今年建案完工認列收入
2020/20.0-99.840.01.5833181.52.3126.38本年累計營收較去年增加,係今年建案完工認列收入
2020/11.58116.1366228.61.5866228.60.0N/A本年營收較去年增加,係今年建案完工認列收入
2019/120.73-84.1530717.36.89-81.810.0N/A營收較去年減少,主要係今年完工建案量體較小
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/122.262023/13.52022/18.52021/15.292020/11.58
2024/20.412023/20.12022/20.042021/20.12020/20.0
2024/30.112023/30.02022/30.132021/30.02020/30.01
2024/40.02023/40.012022/40.02021/40.02020/40.0
2024/50.02023/50.02022/50.02021/50.02020/50.0
2024/60.02023/60.02022/60.012021/60.02020/60.0
2024/70.02023/70.092022/70.02021/715.282020/70.0
2024/80.032023/80.02022/80.02021/82.32020/80.0
2024/90.02023/90.02022/90.02021/90.12020/96.96
2024/100.02023/100.02022/100.02021/100.02020/100.27
2024/110.02023/110.292022/110.02021/110.02020/110.06
N/AN/A2023/1252.592022/123.612021/129.752020/1224.18
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 41.27%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)4.218.79-84.26
24Q2 (19)3.874.59-75.57
24Q1 (18)3.7-85.29-76.48
23Q4 (17)25.16-5.9432.21
23Q3 (16)26.7568.8864.21
23Q2 (15)15.840.714.53
23Q1 (14)15.73-17.3415.75
22Q4 (13)19.0316.823.82
22Q3 (12)16.2917.7922.39
22Q2 (11)13.831.77-11.35
22Q1 (10)13.59-25.8618.07
21Q4 (9)18.3337.7217.5
21Q3 (8)13.31-14.68-5.87
21Q2 (7)15.635.5355.07
21Q1 (6)11.51-26.2234.31
20Q4 (5)15.610.3372.19
20Q3 (4)14.1440.560.0
20Q2 (3)10.0617.390.0
20Q1 (2)8.57-5.410.0
19Q4 (1)9.060.00.0

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