玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.14-74.1-76.523.49-8.430.84N/A訂單量減少
2024/90.56289.6212.373.344.641.031.02訂單量增多
2024/80.14-56.62-67.572.793.220.991.06訂單量減少
2024/70.33-36.9844.862.6417.021.410.74-
2024/60.52-6.87-8.222.3213.911.340.52-
2024/50.56121.7286.291.7922.521.360.51訂單量增加
2024/40.25-53.71-0.191.236.01.040.67-
2024/30.55129.96100.930.987.730.980.72訂單量增加
2024/20.2422.12-19.750.43-32.080.720.97-
2024/10.19-32.71-42.820.19-42.821.090.64-
2023/120.29-52.03-22.934.71.441.510.48-
2023/110.6-1.7571.094.413.591.710.43訂單量增加
2023/100.6123.9996.523.81-2.491.550.47訂單量增加
2023/90.512.40.253.2-11.091.160.92-
2023/80.4493.8-10.22.7-12.91.240.87-
2023/70.23-60.07-52.592.26-13.411.10.97訂單量減少
2023/60.5789.0321.632.03-4.591.120.72-
2023/50.318.7819.491.46-11.980.830.98-
2023/40.25-6.81-10.721.16-17.60.820.99-
2023/30.27-8.1635.350.91-19.340.910.95-
2023/20.3-12.970.080.64-31.211.010.85-
2023/10.34-9.31-45.930.34-45.931.070.81-
2022/120.386.49-54.224.63-3.51.040.83訂單量減少
2022/110.3512.8567.954.266.941.160.74訂單量增加
2022/100.31-36.74-28.783.913.541.30.66-
2022/90.490.67-7.773.597.81.460.7-
2022/80.492.32125.73.110.781.440.71訂單量增多
2022/70.482.43-4.592.611.11.20.85-
2022/60.4785.69-14.682.132.481.01.33-
2022/50.25-11.25-30.331.668.630.741.82-
2022/40.2841.270.041.4120.70.781.72-
2022/30.2-32.09-32.191.1327.331.130.99-
2022/20.3-52.9810.490.9357.321.750.64訂單量增多
2022/10.63-23.2296.460.6396.461.660.67訂單量增加
2021/120.82290.7632.374.80.561.470.56-
2021/110.21-52.14-27.453.98-4.181.180.69-
2021/100.44-18.0861.923.77-2.431.190.69訂單量增加
2021/90.54146.37105.393.33-7.281.260.78訂單量增加
2021/80.22-56.74-47.492.8-16.091.270.77-
2021/70.5-8.3919.292.58-11.641.410.69-
2021/60.5551.63-2.692.08-16.851.190.67-
2021/50.3627.44-28.171.53-20.970.940.85-
2021/40.28-4.25-21.711.17-18.440.850.94-
2021/30.310.66-40.750.88-17.340.880.83-
2021/20.27-16.41-7.110.593.21.210.6-
2021/10.32-48.2713.760.3213.761.230.59-
2020/120.62114.13-16.184.783.971.180.42-
2020/110.296.81-29.394.167.840.820.6-
2020/100.273.922.723.8712.270.950.52-
2020/90.26-37.02-22.143.611.551.10.73-
2020/80.41-1.725.613.3415.461.40.57-
2020/70.42-25.2841.922.9217.01.490.54-
2020/60.5611.9224.612.513.641.430.47-
2020/50.538.910.761.9410.81.370.49-
2020/40.36-27.5323.281.4310.811.150.58-
2020/30.573.573.041.077.141.070.62訂單量增多
2020/20.292.374.450.57-19.691.310.5-
2020/10.28-61.89-35.050.28-35.051.430.46-
2019/120.7480.383.454.5910.890.0N/A-
2019/110.4185.66110.813.8512.440.0N/A訂單量增加
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.192023/10.342022/10.632021/10.322020/10.28
2024/20.242023/20.32022/20.32021/20.272020/20.29
2024/30.552023/30.272022/30.22021/30.32020/30.5
2024/40.252023/40.252022/40.282021/40.282020/40.36
2024/50.562023/50.32022/50.252021/50.362020/50.5
2024/60.522023/60.572022/60.472021/60.552020/60.56
2024/70.332023/70.232022/70.482021/70.52020/70.42
2024/80.142023/80.442022/80.492021/80.222020/80.41
2024/90.562023/90.52022/90.492021/90.542020/90.26
2024/100.142023/100.612022/100.312021/100.442020/100.27
N/AN/A2023/110.62022/110.352021/110.212020/110.29
N/AN/A2023/120.292022/120.382021/120.822020/120.62
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 5.88%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.14133.33180.0
24Q2 (19)0.060.0-57.14
24Q1 (18)0.0650.0-40.0
23Q4 (17)0.04-20.0100.0
23Q3 (16)0.05-64.29-37.5
23Q2 (15)0.1440.0-61.11
23Q1 (14)0.1400.0-47.37
22Q4 (13)0.02-75.0-93.1
22Q3 (12)0.08-77.7814.29
22Q2 (11)0.3689.47176.92
22Q1 (10)0.19-34.48216.67
21Q4 (9)0.29314.29314.29
21Q3 (8)0.07-46.1516.67
21Q2 (7)0.13116.67116.67
21Q1 (6)0.06-14.29100.0
20Q4 (5)0.0716.6775.0
20Q3 (4)0.060.00.0
20Q2 (3)0.06100.00.0
20Q1 (2)0.03-25.00.0
19Q4 (1)0.040.00.0

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